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A question should be forming in the front of your brain at this point. If the top brass of the United States armed forces could make such a simple and dumb mistake while focused on avoiding simple and dumb mistakes, thanks to survivorship bias, does that mean survivorship bias is likely bungling many of your own day-to-day assumptions? The answer is, of course, yes. All the time. Simply put, survivorship bias is your tendency to focus on survivors instead of whatever you would call a…

Survivorship Bias - The Misconception: You should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful. The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible


Survivorship Bias: studying successes, when the critical learning comes from failures. (This is why venture capitalists value failure.) EXAMPLE: WWII bomber armor placement: The holes in the surviving planes reveal the locations that needed the least additional armor. Look at where the survivors are unharmed, he said, and that’s where the bombers are most vulnerable; that’s probably where the planes that didn’t make it back were hit.