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Energy Crisis? Maybe.

There are several questionable preconceived notions that seem to color general perceptions about where the price of energy resources (especially oil) is…
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 4y
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Jason Orender
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Energy
Keeping up with production declines has always been the Achilles heel of shale production. Every well requires capital expenditures to extend the steep decline curve (50-75% per year in many cases), and at some point the maintenance budget overtakes the investment in new production. Cheap Energy, Achilles Heel, Capital Expenditure, Well Drilling, Energy Crisis, Energy Resources, Emerging Technology, Dubious, Good Parenting
Cheap Energy
Achilles Heel
Capital Expenditure
Well Drilling
Energy Crisis
Energy Resources
Emerging Technology
Dubious
Good Parenting
Keeping up with production declines has always been the Achilles heel of shale production. Every well requires capital expenditures to extend the steep decline curve (50-75% per year in many cases), and at some point the maintenance budget overtakes the investment in new production.
The difference between what the fracking companies say they can produce and what they actually produce are showing signs of differing. If this turns out to be a long term trend, look out for a re-evaluation of the contribution of shale oil to global supplies. Texas Oil, International Energy Agency, Oil Industry, Lower Than, Crude Oil, Investment Banking, Diy Solar, Global Economy
Texas Oil
International Energy Agency
Oil Industry
Lower Than
Crude Oil
Investment Banking
Diy Solar
Global Economy
The difference between what the fracking companies say they can produce and what they actually produce are showing signs of differing. If this turns out to be a long term trend, look out for a re-evaluation of the contribution of shale oil to global supplies.
Beyond the basic questions about whether US shale can deliver on the volumes expected to fill the world's energy demands, enduring questions remain about whether a crude that is so light has the ability to fill the demand for heavier fuels (e.g. diesel, jet fuel, heating oil), which has been growing unabated. Heating Oil, Crude, Looms, Lamp Post, Diesel, Deliver
Heating Oil
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Beyond the basic questions about whether US shale can deliver on the volumes expected to fill the world's energy demands, enduring questions remain about whether a crude that is so light has the ability to fill the demand for heavier fuels (e.g. diesel, jet fuel, heating oil), which has been growing unabated.
Jason Orender
Jason Orender
Energy Crisis? Maybe.
I don't normally link to current finance articles because they seem too myopic. This one, however, lays out a convincing multi-year outlook for where the price of energy is headed. Solar Energy For Home, Solar Energy System, Smart Box, Power Bill, Solar Panels, Howto
Solar Energy For Home
Solar Energy System
Smart Box
Power Bill
Solar Panels
Howto
I don't normally link to current finance articles because they seem too myopic. This one, however, lays out a convincing multi-year outlook for where the price of energy is headed.
Jason Orender
Jason Orender
Energy Crisis? Maybe.
Venezuela, one of the largest oil producers on the planet is imploding in real time. As this happens there is not enough money and expertise left in the country to invest in petroleum infrastructure. It will take years to get them back in a position to fill the gap... if we started today. Off Grid Power, Percents, Solar System, Ny Times, Snoopy, Venezuela
Off Grid Power
Percents
Solar System
Ny Times
Snoopy
Venezuela
Venezuela, one of the largest oil producers on the planet is imploding in real time. As this happens there is not enough money and expertise left in the country to invest in petroleum infrastructure. It will take years to get them back in a position to fill the gap... if we started today.
Shale operators are looking to consolidate and show fiscal discipline so that M&A can progress in the sector, which means they will be drilling fewer wildcats and more infill. This will likely move production forward in the near term at the expense of faster depletion. These fields are going to be hurting in a year or two. Fire Video, Greenhouse Gases, Solar Energy, Emissions, Spike
Fire Video
Greenhouse Gases
Solar Energy
Emissions
Spike
Shale operators are looking to consolidate and show fiscal discipline so that M&A can progress in the sector, which means they will be drilling fewer wildcats and more infill. This will likely move production forward in the near term at the expense of faster depletion. These fields are going to be hurting in a year or two.
A short vignette that expresses skepticism about the rising expectations being put on shale oil. Solar Energy Projects, Bitcoin Value, Global Stocks, Business News, Equity, Super Powers, Financial
Solar Energy Projects
Bitcoin Value
Global Stocks
Business News
Equity
Super Powers
Financial
A short vignette that expresses skepticism about the rising expectations being put on shale oil.
There is a general skepticism that Latin American countries can deliver on the expected production growth implicit in IEA estimates. American Country, Oil And Gas, Latin America, Countries
American Country
Oil And Gas
Latin America
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There is a general skepticism that Latin American countries can deliver on the expected production growth implicit in IEA estimates.
Why the Brazilian state oil company Petrobras continually throws off global production estimates by over-promising and under-delivering. This was written in 2013, but the fundamentals are the same. Chase Bank, Oil Company, Financial Times, Analysis, Barris, Oils
Chase Bank
Oil Company
Financial Times
Analysis
Barris
Oils
Why the Brazilian state oil company Petrobras continually throws off global production estimates by over-promising and under-delivering. This was written in 2013, but the fundamentals are the same.
Jason Orender
Jason Orender
Energy Crisis? Maybe.
How much oil does Saudi Arabia actually have? The answer to that question is a state secret, and the unlikely trends of the public numbers indicate that the answer is actually less. Maybe much less. Bond Market, Initial Public Offering, Oil Refinery, New York, World's Biggest, Saudi Arabia, Signs
Bond Market
Initial Public Offering
Oil Refinery
New York
World's Biggest
Saudi Arabia
Signs
How much oil does Saudi Arabia actually have? The answer to that question is a state secret, and the unlikely trends of the public numbers indicate that the answer is actually less. Maybe much less.
Can Saudi Arabia come to the rescue in an energy crunch by bringing on more production? They consistently say yes, but not everyone is convinced. How Many Countries, Big Oil, Social Entrepreneurship, Energy Supply, Oilfield, Life Improvement
How Many Countries
Big Oil
Social Entrepreneurship
Energy Supply
Oilfield
Life Improvement
Can Saudi Arabia come to the rescue in an energy crunch by bringing on more production? They consistently say yes, but not everyone is convinced.
The electric dream is complicated. Beside the possibility that development may not be able to occur nearly fast enough to meet expectations (causing commodity prices to rise precipitously), supply chain headaches dominate plans for industry expansion. Mini Cars, Car Battery, The Guardian, Minerals
Mini Cars
Car Battery
The Guardian
Minerals
The electric dream is complicated. Beside the possibility that development may not be able to occur nearly fast enough to meet expectations (causing commodity prices to rise precipitously), supply chain headaches dominate plans for industry expansion.
Even if investment ramped up to peak levels today, Venezuela will likely never reach their peak production (high water mark set in 1998) again. The reserves development graph in this article is telling. Venezuelan, High Water, Forbes, Chef Jackets
Venezuelan
High Water
Forbes
Chef Jackets
Even if investment ramped up to peak levels today, Venezuela will likely never reach their peak production (high water mark set in 1998) again. The reserves development graph in this article is telling.
Venezuela will likely feed the next crisis if one develops. At their peak, they were producing about 3.5M barrels per day. With zero investment in petroleum infrastructure and the country in chaos, those days may never be seen again. This story is from 2016, but it has only gotten worse since. Commodity Futures, Mining Company, Has Gone, London Travel, Filipino, Golden Gate Bridge
Commodity Futures
Mining Company
Has Gone
London Travel
Filipino
Golden Gate Bridge
Venezuela will likely feed the next crisis if one develops. At their peak, they were producing about 3.5M barrels per day. With zero investment in petroleum infrastructure and the country in chaos, those days may never be seen again. This story is from 2016, but it has only gotten worse since.
Fracking (especially in the Permian Basin) has complications and may not be able to save the world from a shortage. Centurion
Centurion
Fracking (especially in the Permian Basin) has complications and may not be able to save the world from a shortage.